Load Forecasting with Support Vector Machines and Semi-parametric Method

A new approach to short-term electrical load forecasting is investigated in this paper. As electrical load data are highly non-linear in nature, in the proposed approach, we first separate out the linear and the non-linear parts, and then forecast using the non-linear part only. Semi-parametric spectral estimation method is used to decompose a load data signal into a harmonic linear signal model and a non-linear trend. A support vector machine is then used to predict the non-linear trend. The final predicted signal is then found by adding the support vector machine predicted trend and the linear signal part. The performance of the proposed method seems to be more robust than using only the raw load data. This is due to the fact that the proposed method is intended to be more focused on the non-linear part rather than a diluted mixture of the linear and the non-linear parts as done usually.